<<Snip>>

Some experts think they'll (programmers) become extinct within the next few
years, forced into unemployment or new careers...>>

Yep, I've already changed my career.

Now I'm just waiting for that first phone call from Mr. Spielberg to give
me my first *BIG* break..........


Brian "the next 007" Donaldson.


On Fri, 15 Oct 2004 10:29:20 -0400, Michael Baier
<[log in to unmask]> wrote:

>Wish GWB had said on Wednesday what the 21st century jobs are.
>Seems it aint programmer. Maybe manager at McD or Wendys?
>
>Endangered species: US programmers
>By David R. Francis, The Christian Science Monitor
>
>Say goodbye to the American software programmer. Once the symbols of hope
>as the nation shifted from manufacturing to service jobs, programmers today
>are an endangered species. They face a challenge similar to that which
>shrank the ranks of steelworkers and autoworkers a quarter century ago:
>competition from foreigners.
>
>Some experts think they'll become extinct within the next few years, forced
>into unemployment or new careers by a combination of offshoring of their
>work to India and other low-wage countries and the arrival of skilled
>immigrants taking their jobs.
>
>Not everybody agrees programmers will disappear completely. But even the
>optimists believe that many basic programming jobs will go to foreign
>nations, leaving behind jobs for Americans to lead and manage software
>projects. The evidence is already mounting that many computer jobs are
>endangered, prompting concern about the future of the nation's high-tech
>industries.
>
>Since the dotcom bust in 2000-2001, nearly a quarter of California
>technology workers have taken nontech jobs, according to a study of 1
>million workers released last week by Sphere Institute, a San Francisco Bay
>Area public policy group. The jobs they took often paid less. Software
>workers were hit especially hard. Another 28% have dropped off California's
>job rolls altogether. They fled the state, became unemployed, or decided on
>self-employment.
>
>The problem is not limited to California.
>
>Although computer-related jobs in the United States increased by 27,000
>between 2001 and 2003, about 180,000 new foreign H-1B workers in the
>computer area entered the nation, calculates John Miano, an expert with the
>Programmers Guild, a professional society. "This suggests any gain of jobs
>have been taken by H-1B workers," he says.
>
>H-1B visas allow skilled foreigners to live and work in the US for up to
>six years. Many are able to get green cards in a first step to citizenship.
>Another visa, L-1, allows multinational companies to transfer workers from
>foreign operations into the US.
>
>The H-1B visa has been highly controversial for years. This fiscal year,
>Congress set a quota of 65,000 visas, which was snapped up immediately
>after they became available Oct.1. Now, US business is pleading for
>Congress to let in more such workers.
>
>The US Chamber of Commerce, for instance, wants Congress to revisit the
>cap "to ensure American business has access to the talent it needs to help
>keep our economy strong."
>
>That rationale makes no sense to the Programmers Guild and other groups
>that have sprung up to resist the tech visas. Since more than 100,000
>American programmers are unemployed - and many more are underemployed - the
>existing 65,000 quota is inexcusably high, they argue. H-1B and L-1 visas
>are "American worker replacement programs," says the National Hire American
>Citizens Society.
>
>Further, the H-1B program, set up in 1990, is flawed, critics charge. For
>example, employers are not required to recruit Americans before resorting
>to hiring H-1Bs, says Norman Matloff, a computer science professor at the
>University of California, Davis.
>
>And the requirement that employers pay H-1Bs a "prevailing wage" is
>useless, he adds, because the law is riddled with loopholes. Nor are even
>any remaining regulations enforced.
>
>The average wage for an American programmer runs about $60,000, says John
>Bauman, who set up the Organization for the Rights of American Workers.
>Employers pay H-1Bs an average $53,000.
>
>A programmer, Mr. Bauman was out of work for 20 months before finally
>taking a job with a 40% pay cut. His experience is common enough that
>programmers are organizing to fight in Congress against H-1B and L-1 visas.
>
>But they face an uphill battle, says Mr. Miano, as business groups are far
>better organized and funded than the smattering of programmer groups. "They
>have the best legislation money can buy," he says.
>
>Miano sees such a dim future for programmers that he decided to enter law
>school. "I saw the handwriting on the wall," he says.
>
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