For those of you who haven't wasted as much time as I have researching and
investing, let me point out a couple things about today's stock market.
First, good solid companies like HP can have large fluctuations in their
stock price, and that doesn't necessarily reflect on the company's recent
performance.  Buying stock today is a lot like buying commodity futures, in
that you're betting on the company's future performance compared to what
others have estimated it to be.  In other words, if analysts project HP's
earnings to be $1 per share in the next quarter, they might extrapolate
that to mean the stock is a "Buy" at 20 times earnings.  Then, when actual
earnings are reported, or get close to being reported since info flows so
freely today (this is sometimes called inside information), the stock price
will make a sudden correction up or down, depending on where actual
earnings come in in relations to that $1 estimate.  Thus, HP's stock
trading at a one year low only means that maybe they haven't made as much
money as some so-called experts thought they would.  We all know that HP is
a solid company trying to stay on the leading edge of our industry, and I
would be surprised if they didn't continue to make alot of money in years
to come.

Secondly, there is so much money chasing stocks today, and so many who have
access to inside information,  that alot of logical analysis no longer
applies to picking stocks.

John Lee
Vaske Computer Solutions and former amateur investor



At 08:48 PM 8/11/98 -0400, you wrote:


>Wirt Atmar wrote:
>>
>> Leonard Berkowitz asks:
>>
>> > And is there anything trading at [or near its] 52-week high?
>>
>> Yes. Almost any company dealing exclusively with the internet and which has
>> yet to make a profit. Both conditions seem to be currently necessary for
>> success on Wall Street.
>>
>> Wirt Atmar
>
>IMHO the reasons for HP's lackluster stock prices are:
>
>1.  LOW margins in the computer business due to HEAVY competition.
>
>2.  Low earnings predictions by HPand analysts.
>
>3.  A somewhat nervous stock market.
>
>No, I am not selling my HP stock.
>
>Nick D.
>
>P. S.   You have heard of the Atmarian calendar.  Well, Wirt got to
>San Diego in spirit anyway.
>
>The convention center is a nice building at a nice location (by the
>water), BUT Somebody got to it (Wirt?).  Where do you expect Room 1
>in a building to be?  Some might say on the first floor?  Not at the
>Convention Center.  It is on the TOP floor and the numbers go go from
> there!
>
>Nick D.
>
>