Hello Denys and others,

I pretty much agree, Denys, with everything you said about how the
former SSR's feel about Russia in your previous post.  I think that's
right on the money.  After that I think you went a little off track, but
not by much.

Although it is tempting to make this connection (Kosovo/Serbia),
particularly if you tend to be cemented in the views of the radical
right wing, I don't really believe it is a view with much to recommend
it in this particular case.  The people the Russian government cares
about are Russians, only certain Russians, mind you, but Russians
nonetheless.  Serbia doesn't have much to offer other than a presence in
the Balkans, and that's not worth a lot.  Turkey's control of the
Bosporus is far more valuable in that region.

Putin, and I'm purposely leaving off any respectful reference like
"Mr.", has lived up to his legacy of service in the KGB and created a
true thugocracry, if I may use the term, of the highest order, in my
opinion.

Again, in my opinion, he is most easily understood in American culture
by equating him to a fictional character, Tony Soprano.  In that analogy
as well, we can regard President Medvyedev as playing the "Junior
Soprano" character, a figurehead leader of the organization with little
actual power.

The only relevant question then, is what does Moscow see in Georgia that
it wants?  The only thing of real value there is the only other
transportation route for oil and natural gas from Central Asia to
Western Europe that does NOT pass through Russian territory.  They want
the money.  It's the same thing here, and it's the same thing
everywhere.  Follow the money.  Follow the money.  Follow the money...

My opinion, others may share, but it's still mine.  :-)

Howard

-----Original Message-----
From: HP-3000 Systems Discussion [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf Of Denys Beauchemin
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2008 5:34 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [HP3000-L] OT: Reaction to Georgia invasion

Your understanding of current events is once again at odds with reality.
Nevertheless, it is imperative that a true ceasefire become in effect in
the
region and that the Russians and the Georgians pull back to their
positions
before the conflict.

These events are linked to the Kosovo events of some years back and
especially to the winter 2008 Kosovo agreement.  However, these events
must
not be allowed to divert us from the war on Jihadi terrorists, and it
has
the potential to do just that.

In the long run, I believe that South Ossetia and Abkhazia will be able
to
peaceably go their own way from Georgia but it's going to require some
fortitude from politicians in the EU, the US and Russia as well.  There
are
no such politicians in the EU, and depending on the outcome of the
elections
in the US, there may not be here either.  Russia knows what it wants and
it
will be steadfast.

This is probably going to get worse before it goes real bad.

Denys

-----Original Message-----
From: HP-3000 Systems Discussion [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf
Of Heasman, David
Sent: Thursday, August 14, 2008 1:58 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [HP3000-L] OT: Reaction to Georgia invasion

None of what you say is a secret, to me or anyone else. However,
although these countries have joined NATO noone seriously believes that
the West will go to nuclear war to protect Ukraine, half of which
identifies with Russia anyway, from Russia. Even McCain in his fewer and
fewer lucid moments, wouldn't. Georgia is a long way from the North
Atlantic. A very small country with a small talent pool for politicians
decides to shell civilians in disputed territory while a truce is
operative. And the territory is disputed with Russia. It's hard to think
of anything more stupid or dangerous, and I have no desire for my
children to be turned into smouldering ashes because of it. Nor, to
paraphrase a better tactician than either of us, do I think this fight
worth the blood of one English squaddy.


-----Original Message-----
From: Denys Beauchemin [mailto:[log in to unmask]] 
Sent: 14 August 2008 01:59
To: Heasman, David; [log in to unmask]
Subject: RE: [HP3000-L] OT: Reaction to Georgia invasion


Really?

Despite the ceasefire, Russia is still actively attacking in Georgia.
Perhaps the French did not have as much influence as they (and you)
think. The Germans are doing pretty much nothing, they really have no
influence and I think it will take a long time before they gain any.

You should remember that when the Soviet Union crumbled in the early
1990s, a lot of the SSRs, newly freed from Russia, approached the West
and asked to join NATO.  

In 1990, East Germany joined NATO as part of the German reunification.  

In 1999, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary joined NATO. 

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania
joined NATO in 2004.  

Earlier this year, Croatia and Albania were invited to join.  

And currently, Ukraine and Georgia are vying to membership and have been
told they would eventually be allowed to join.  

These countries have joined NATO to protect them from Russia.  They know
Russia very well and they know what they are capable of doing.

In case you forget, NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was
formed after WWII ostensibly to keep the Russians out of, the Germans
down and the Americans in, Europe.

At this time, Russia has shown why these ex-Soviet Socialist Republics
should be afraid.

Denys


-----Original Message-----
From: HP-3000 Systems Discussion [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On
Behalf Of Heasman, David
Sent: Wednesday, August 13, 2008 5:19 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [HP3000-L] OT: Reaction to Georgia invasion

Oh good, that's what's happening. Russia and Georgia have stopped
killing each other and the French and that's if you count Chechnya, and
Germans are looking to produce a lasting truce. The Georgians stupidly
thought that US assurances of support - "we are all Georgians now" eh?
In an armchair 6 000 miles away - meant that they could shell civilians
while a truce was operating. That won't happen again, soon.  In the
meantime noone wins but Russia, which is bad news for the Baltics. 
 Still, Russia has only invaded 3 countries in the past 20 years, and
that's if you include Chechnya, which is low for a nuclear superpower,
especially compared with one other.


-----Original Message-----
From: Brice Yokem [mailto:[log in to unmask]] 
Sent: 13 August 2008 19:40
To: HP3000 List; Heasman, David
Subject: Re: OT: Reaction to Georgia invasion


I agree we should treat this as a European territorial dispute and let
Europe settle the matter.

* Please Note : This message was received from the Internet *
_____________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________


Visit Schroders Talking Point for market news and expert views
http://www.schroders.com/talkingpoint

This message might contain confidential information. If it has been sent
to you in error please do not forward it or copy it or act upon its
contents, but report it to [log in to unmask]

Schroders has the right lawfully to record, monitor and inspect messages
between its employees and any third party. Your messages shall be
subject to such lawful supervision as Schroders deems to be necessary in
order to protect its information, its interests and its reputation.

Schroders prohibits and takes steps to prevent its information systems
from being used to view, store or forward offensive or discriminatory
material. If this message contains such material please report it to
[log in to unmask]

Schroders does not normally accept or offer business instructions via
email unless prior agreements are in place. Any action that you might
take upon this message might be at your own risk.


Schroder Investment Management Limited
31 Gresham Street
London EC2V 7QA

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Schroder
Investment Management Limited is entered on the FSA register under the
following register number: 119348

Registered Office
31 Gresham Street
London EC2V 7QA

Registered number 1893220
VAT registration number 243 8687 30

* To join/leave the list, search archives, change list settings, *
* etc., please visit http://raven.utc.edu/archives/hp3000-l.html * No
virus found in this incoming message. Checked by AVG -
http://www.avg.com 
Version: 8.0.138 / Virus Database: 270.6.2/1609 - Release Date:
8/13/2008 6:43 AM
* Please Note : This message was received from the Internet *
_____________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________


Visit Schroders Talking Point for market news and expert views
http://www.schroders.com/talkingpoint

This message might contain confidential information. If it has been sent
to
you in error please do not forward it or copy it or act upon its
contents,
but report it to [log in to unmask]

Schroders has the right lawfully to record, monitor and inspect messages
between its employees and any third party. Your messages shall be
subject to
such lawful supervision as Schroders deems to be necessary in order to
protect its information, its interests and its reputation.

Schroders prohibits and takes steps to prevent its information systems
from
being used to view, store or forward offensive or discriminatory
material.
If this message contains such material please report it to
[log in to unmask]

Schroders does not normally accept or offer business instructions via
email
unless prior agreements are in place. Any action that you might take
upon
this message might be at your own risk.


Schroder Investment Management Limited
31 Gresham Street
London EC2V 7QA

Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Schroder
Investment Management Limited is entered on the FSA register under the
following register number: 119348

Registered Office
31 Gresham Street
London EC2V 7QA

Registered number 1893220
VAT registration number 243 8687 30

* To join/leave the list, search archives, change list settings, *
* etc., please visit http://raven.utc.edu/archives/hp3000-l.html *
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com 
Version: 8.0.138 / Virus Database: 270.6.2/1609 - Release Date:
8/13/2008
6:43 AM

* To join/leave the list, search archives, change list settings, *
* etc., please visit http://raven.utc.edu/archives/hp3000-l.html *

* To join/leave the list, search archives, change list settings, *
* etc., please visit http://raven.utc.edu/archives/hp3000-l.html *