From: "M. Bevelhimer" <[log in to unmask]>
To: <[log in to unmask]>
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 4:28 PM
Subject: Re: [SCUBA-SE] OT: Unmoderated but (almost) Flame Free Forum?


> Dear Professor Poisson,
>
> If I'd known you were giving away free statistical advice, I'd have hit
> you
> up a long time ago!  I am usually only in need of fairly basic stats,
> though I've got a new project to find a way to assign some statistical
> confidence to a conclusion that a rare salamander doesn't exist in a pond
> after repeated (but uncertain) sampling without finding any. The model
> includes the consideration of a myriad of other factors that affect
> whether
> they should be there and whether we're good enough to find them. If you
> find one, you know they are there; if you don't find any, you can't be
> certain.  Should be a nice challenge for a couple years.

Nothing to it.  Drain the pond and check to see.  Take long enough to count,
say a few days, and you can be nearly 100%certain that there aren't any in
the pond . . . any more.

How'd things go with the house?

Lee