It's interesting to think about "abiotic oil" formation, or the
polymerization of methane at the mantle/crust interface.  This
hypothesis runs counter to the long-standing hypothesis (probably a
theory by now) that oil is formed through the gradual polymerization
of pre-formed organic matter (from dead plants, algae, or even
animals) under great pressure, over millions of years of time.  The
idea that "new" oil exists has been discussed for a while. However,
if there's so much "new" oil forming down there, as one of the
articles below suggest, why haven't we detected it throughout the oil
fields of the world?  It's not like we don't drill wells all over the
place.  We even drill deep injection wells to pump hazardous wastes
in places that would likely have this "abiotic oil". We're not
finding much "new" or "old" oil. In fact globally, the peak of new
oil discoveries occurred in 1962 at over 40 billion barrels
discovered per year.  In 2002 new oil discoveries did not climb above
10 billion barrels globally.  According to the London-based Energy
Institute, oil production is in decline in 18 major producing
countries.  The drop off in oil production within these oil producers
amounts to close to 1 million barrels per day. It's also frightening
to think that the Saudis, who have the largest proven reserves, are
now resorting to "tricks" (e.g., pumping hot water into oil fields)
to increase their production.  These "tricks" often abruptly stop
working.  The Saudis may not actually know how great their reserves
are after all.  So, where is this "new" oil?  If we don't begin to
find it soon, it may be too late to resurrect an oil-based economy
that crashes for lack of cheap oil.

The idea of converting waste material into a "synthetic" oil is
interesting. As the article below suggests, there is a demonstration
plant working in Missouri.  However, this could only be taken as a
stop gap measure.  Where would the new oil come from to keep growing
all of those plants to feed an 80% efficient conversion process.  At
each cycle you lose 20% of your energy content.  It's not a perpetual
motion machine.

Without concerted efforts now to significantly reduce global oil
consumption we're in for some rough waters sooner than some might
think.

Take care,

Henry

>X-Auth-No:
>X-Sender: [log in to unmask]
>Date:         Mon, 4 Oct 2004 17:17:41 -0400
>Reply-To:     Suzanna Nichols <[log in to unmask]>
>Sender:       UTC Staff E-Mail List <[log in to unmask]>
>From:         Suzanna Nichols <[log in to unmask]>
>Subject:      Re: [UTCSTAFF] "Peak Oil":  Concept Finally Reaching Economists
>Comments: To: Henry Spratt <[log in to unmask]>
>To:           [log in to unmask]
>
>Two more interesting articles:
>
>http://www.wnd.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=38645 (Sustainable Oil? An
>Intriguing new theory; contains links to more info)
>
>http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/897232/posts/ (Anything Into Oil:
>Solution to Dependence on Foreign Oil?) (or link directly to the company
>http://www.changingworldtech.com/)
>
>At 04:35 PM 10/4/2004 -0400, Henry Spratt wrote:
>>Colleagues:
>>
>>I thought I'd pass this along to you-all.  You may or may not ever
>>have heard the term "peak oil", however as a carbon biogeochemist (my
>>line of research) this term represents a very important event in
>>global and human history.  The peak represents a peak on a graph of
>>all the oil that has ever been, or ever could be pumped from the
>>earth.  As a finite resource petroleum will follow such a depletion
>>curve.  Of course the implications of this peak to humanity are
>>significant.  After we're sure the peak has been reached (a little
>>bit of a daunting task due to the widespread nature of the resource),
>>every drop of oil we pump from the earth will cost more. Why bring
>>this peak up now?  Well, a number of geophysicists and geochemists
>>estimate that this peak has occurred this year, or will occur next
>>year (one fellow goes as far as to say that the date of the peak will
>>be Thanksgiving Day, 2005).  Why haven't you heard much about "peak
>>oil" in the past?  Well, basically due to economists who have not
>>considered this aspect of oil in the past.  However, news out of
>>Washington this past Friday that Group of Seven (G7) ministers have
>>finally begun discussing the possibility that global  scarcity of oil
>>may be not be as temporary a problem as previously thought.  Check
>>out the following web sites for more information on this issue.
>>
>>http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/100404_we_did_it.shtml
>>
>>http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6396037
>>
>>http://www.gulf-daily-news.com/Story.asp?Article=92871&Sn=BUSI&IssueID=27194
>>
>>Take care,
>>
>>Henry Spratt
>>--
>>______________________________________________________________________
>>
>>Henry G. Spratt, Jr., Ph.D.
>>Professor
>>Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences
>>University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
>>615 McCallie Ave.
>>Chattanooga, TN 37403-2598
>>
>>Ph:     (423)425-4383
>>Fax:    (423)425-2285
>>e-mail: [log in to unmask]
>
>Suzanna Nichols
>Office Manager
>UT SimCenter at Chattanooga
>423-425-5497
>[log in to unmask]


--
______________________________________________________________________

Henry G. Spratt, Jr., Ph.D.
Professor
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences
University of Tennessee at Chattanooga
615 McCallie Ave.
Chattanooga, TN 37403-2598

Ph:     (423)425-4383
Fax:    (423)425-2285
e-mail: [log in to unmask]