Mark writes:
> It is with much regret that we announce the death of the HP3000. This
[...]
> I raise my glass to the old lady. She's gone but not forgotten.

Hum, well, nice sentiment, but I don't think the death of an individual is
the right metaphor to use in describing the demise of the HP3000 and MPE.
It's more like the obsolescence of a make of automobiles, or if you insist
on writing an obituary then it might be appropriate to have one for the
*maker* of the product, since they might be seen to be the only ones going
away "suddenly".

Actually the word "demise" is an interesting one.

www.dictionary.com gives us:

---

de·mise

n.

1. a. Death.
   b. The end of existence or activity; termination: the demise of the
streetcar.
2. Law. Transfer of an estate by lease or will.
3. The transfer of a ruler's authority by death or abdication.

v. de·mised, de·mis·ing, de·mis·es
v. tr.
1. Law. To transfer (an estate) by will or lease.
2. To transfer (sovereignty) by abdication or will.

v. intr.
1. Law. To be transferred by will or descent: The land demised to a
charitable institution.
2. To die.

\De*mise"\, v. t. 1. To transfer or transmit by succession or inheritance;
to grant or bestow by will; to bequeath. ``Power to demise my
lands.'' --Swift.

What honor Canst thou demise to any child of mine? --Shak.

2. To convey; to give. [R.]

His soul is at his conception demised to him. --Hammond.

3. (Law) To convey, as an estate, by lease; to lease.

---

So maybe the real problem is simply that HP has not yet *properly* "demised"
MPE.

Now the other problem with comparing the demise of MPE with the death of an
individual is that in the case of MPE there's really no need to be in a
hurry to start digging a grave.

Far from being dead, the HP3000 has probably just entered into a period of
steady decline which can be characterized by a "half-life" just as in the
case of the decay of a radioactive isotope.  My rough guess for the
half-life of MPE at this point is probably around 2 years.  The standard
wisdom seems to be that you need 10 half-lives before there's nothing
significant left of the original sample, so from this we would expect that
20 years will elapse before the last 3000s pass out of use.

From this metric one might predict that in 2007 there will still be 1/4 the
number of 3000s in use in production as there are today, even though HP will
have stopped providing any support for them at the end of 2006.

Let's look at some data from the most recent Interex e3000 Migration
Survey...

52% of customers estimate that the migration will take more than two years.
So there's our first two year half-life.

When asked what their migration plans were, 23% said that they planned to
continue on MPE past 2006, so there's our 1/4 of all systems still around in
2007.  We have almost 25% *planning* to stay on MPE, and I suspect that many
people's estimates of how quickly they will have migrated off of the 3000
are quite optimistic considering most people haven't started the process
yet.

In the same question about migration plans, 35% said they would either
migrate their current application code or rewrite their application on a new
platform.  Both of these are options which may experience a relatively high
chance of cost- and time-overruns, and even ought right project failures,
extending the time that these people will be on MPE.  And even the 34% who
plan to simply buy a new application on a new platform and the 7% who plan
to simply stop using their MPE applications by 2006 will have a lot of work
to do to accomplish this in a reasonable amount of time.

And 58% of customers expect to (or will be forced to?) complete their
transition using only their own internal staff, which will probably result
in a more leisurely pace for the process.

Based on the amount of money I've seen made over the years as a result of
*renting* 3000 software to people who were going to "be off the platform in
six months" and who were still there five years later, I think the user base
is still going to be quite crowded in 2007.

Also not all customers have yet experienced life out there in the big, wide,
non-MPE world.  Myself I find using Unix and Windows systems quite
interesting, and rather like visiting some exotic foreign country.  The
scenery and architecture is quite interesting, though eventually you find
your self wishing to be home in your own bed and thinking "why can't these
people just do things the way we did back home?".

The average emigrant from MPE would be well advised to come prepared with a
complete compliment of remedies for motion-sickness, indigestion, and stress
:-)

And some of those who depart are going to find after some time that they
really would rather go back home, even if "home" means living on an
"unsupported" platform.

So...  Obsolete?  Perhaps.  Dying?  Maybe.  Dead?  Not for quite a long
time.

G.

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