Wirt writes:
> While the probability of an extremely rare event occurring is
> (1 - 1/n)^xn, if we let x represent some multiple of n, calculating
> the probability of this event occurring is simple enough to calculate
> that you can *do* it in your head: 1 - (.37)^x. If x is as small as 10,
> then the probability of the event rises from 63% to 99.995%.

And if you perform an infinite number of trials then the probability becomes
the repeating decimal 99.99999... (which everyone knows is equal to 1) hence
there is no question as to whether the event will occur.

> Thus, the moral of the first posting remains, regardless of the arithmetic
> errors: exceedingly low-probability universes are not at all necessarily
> low-probability. Indeed, given the presence of a barb of selection, these
> universes may well be inevitable.

In fact even without a "barb of selection", if you have an infinite "stage"
on which these events can occur, then every finite event which is possible
must not only occur, but it must occur an infinite number of times and with
infinite frequency.

If our Universe was created as a probabilistic event on such a stage, then
we must admit to the reality of an infinite number of Wirts posting to an
infinite number of HP3000-L mailing lists every moment (except in that
additional infinite number of universes which differ from this one only in
that Bill *lost* the coin toss and it's PH3000-L).

It's fun to think about the consequences of such a multiverse.  For example,
if things worked that way then our current observations of our Universe
suggest certain limits on the physics of such a system.

If it were possible using limited resources to travel instantly to another
universe that was indistinguishable from this one, we would have to worry
about the possibility that an infinite number of Wirts might suddenly and
simultaneously decide to come visit the Wirt in this universe, thus severely
taxing the enchilada production capacity of Las Cruces.

Since this has not happened, I think we can safely assume that it's
impossible.

G.

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