Absolutely correct.  You are faced with a decision between 2 items.  1 is
correct. That works out to a 50-50 chance.  Your original chances would have
been 1 in billion, but now, by removing the others, it changes the odds, and
it is really a new game.  You are now choosing between 2 doors, 1 of which
you know is the winner. The odds are still 1 out of 2 whether you chose the
one you chose in the old game, or the new one presented to you.  It may seem
different, but it is not. Lottery games run on the assumption that there may
be NONE of the tickets with the winning number.  Monty's did not.

Tony

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Genesis Total Solutions [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Thursday, March 02, 2000 1:06 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors
>
>
> Taking this out to the nth degree...
>
> If you bought a lottery ticket (1 out of a billion tickets),
> and someone got
> rid of all the other lottery tickets except for one, and told
> you that yours
> or the other ticket is the winning one, are you saying that
> you wouldn't
> switch, that your odds are not any better now than before???
>
> Chris Miller
> Genesis
>