If someone got rid of all tickets except for 2 (including the one I had),
then I would still say there is a 50:50 chance that I would have the winning
ticket.

My point is that it isn't the odds at the beginning.  They are pretty much
irrelevant due to the fact that that choice is not final.  I can arbitrarily
pick any number I want.  What is important, is the choice you give me after
you eliminate the other options.

If I gave you two lottery tickets, and told you one was the winning ticket,
what are your odds?  The 1:1,000,000 that say a ticket is a winner, or 1:2
since that is the true odds?

-------------------------------------------------------------
Gary L. Paveza, Jr.
Technical Support Specialist

        -----Original Message-----
        From:   Genesis Total Solutions [SMTP:[log in to unmask]]
        Sent:   Thursday, March 02, 2000 1:06 PM
        To:     [log in to unmask]
        Subject:        Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors

        Taking this out to the nth degree...

        If you bought a lottery ticket (1 out of a billion tickets), and
someone got
        rid of all the other lottery tickets except for one, and told you
that yours
        or the other ticket is the winning one, are you saying that you
wouldn't
        switch, that your odds are not any better now than before???

        Chris Miller
        Genesis

        Tony Peters wrote:

        > Actually, if they always played the game that way, that is showing
you one
        > of the doors you did not pick then allowing you to pick between
the
        > remaining 2, do you not have a 1 in 2 chance of picking the right
one?
        >
        > Changing your pick does not change your odds, it is still 1 in 2.
        >
        > Tony Peters     Ph  416 240-3695 Fax 416-249-3193
        > Project Manager - New Technology
        > S&C Electric Canada Ltd     [log in to unmask]
        >
        > My words are from my thoughts and no-one else,
        > because they have no idea what I think.
        > .....Good thing too.
        >
        > > -----Original Message-----
        > > From: Noel Demos [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
        > > Sent: Wednesday, March 01, 2000 10:48 PM
        > > To: [log in to unmask]
        > > Subject: Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors
        > >
        > >
        > > Tim Ericson wrote:
        > > >
        > > > Hi,
        > > >
        > > > Curtis Cappell wrote:
        > > > > It is better to switch.  Marilyn was correct.
        > > >
        > > ------------------------------------------------+
        > > Here comes the contrarian again.  You started with a 1/3
        > > chance.  Either you won or you didn't.  Whether you change after
being
        > > shown one empty door doesn't change the odds.
        > >
        > > Nick D.
        > >