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March 2000, Week 1

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Subject:
Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors
From:
Boris Kortiak <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Boris Kortiak <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Thu, 2 Mar 2000 10:15:43 -0500
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Nick,

When the game starts what is Bob's probability of winning?  If you switch places with Bob, what is your probability of winning?  Can you see that reveling what is behind one of the doors is just a red herring to  make it seem like something it isn't.  What the question really boils down to is, "Should you switch places with Bob?".

>>> Noel Demos <[log in to unmask]> 03/01/00 10:47PM >>>
<snip>
------------------------------------------------+
Here comes the contrarian again.  You started with a 1/3
chance.  Either you won or you didn't.  Whether you change after being
shown one empty door doesn't change the odds.

Nick D.

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