X-no-Archive:yes
I'm now sorry that I brought the Monty Hall problem up (but am thinking of
renting space for Gavin at HP World in exchange for a cut of the proceeds,
or offering to play the shill in the hotel bar for a percentage). I would
much rather see this energy being spent on understanding and producing the
TPC benchmarks. At least CSY is staying out of this thread.

I assumed that folks would do their own reading and research, and realize
what interesting things statistics can be, and what a difference a subtle
difference makes (also note that the problem excludes the lucky stiff who
chooses the goat to begin with). So, follow the link Curtis provided,
although it is a popular write-up, and not a bunch of PhDs in mathematics
and philosophy spitting venom at each other (no offense meant to PhDs of the
non-venomous variety). What I did was search from Altavista on +Monty
+Savant. Or search on the name of mathematician who devised the problem,
given at the bottom of the straightdope web site as "Steve Selvin, a
UCal-Berkeley prof (cf American Statistician, February 1975)".

For those who wisely pointed out that mathematical formulae should be
preferred over the evidence of one's own eyes, I agree. But for those who
cannot be persuaded by reason or who write more than they read, they should
either be shown hard evidence, or be given a chance to put their money where
there mouth is and get taken to the cleaners by a guy with three walnut
shells and a pea (who they will then probably accuse of cheating).

Greg Stigers
http://www.cgiusa.com

-----Original Message-----
From: Curtis Cappell [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
Sent: Thursday, March 02, 2000 2:11 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors

Here's hoping I've increased the probability of this thread ending soon...

A good summary of all the different points of view we have seen on this list
can be found at:

http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_189.html

Interesting reading, to say the least.

Curt