Dear Colleagues,

We continue our Colloquium in the Math Department.

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Leigh J. Halliwell,

FCAS, MAAA

Monday, February 21, EMCS 422, 2:00 pm.

Maximum Likelihood and Medical-Malpractice Claims: An Actuarial Analysis

Abstract. The severity a medical malpractice claim is Insurance companies is
an important component of the price of medical malpractice insurance.  To a
sample of two hundred Tennessee claims from 1991 to 2004 Mr. Halliwell will
fit by maximum likelihood a gamma distribution whose scale parameter varies
by year. The average claim severity is proportional to the scale parameter.
A graph suggests that the severity is tending to increase; but maximum
likelihood allows us to test the significance of the trend. Most actuarial
work is less technical than this; but the exercise shows that casualty
actuaries have the training and the opportunity to apply mathematical and
statistical theory to business problems.

Mr. Halliwell is a self-employed consulting actuary in Chattanooga.  He has
worked in many different insurance fields both in the US and abroad, and
frequently publishes in journals and speaks at seminars.  Time permitting,
he will answer questions about the actuarial profession.

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Boris P Belinskiy

Department of Mathematics, Dept. 6956

University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Ph. (423) 425-4748