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Date: | Mon, 9 Dec 2002 18:01:04 EST |
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Gavin writes:
> I would also be interested in hearing what people would guess is the number
> of production emulator licenses that could be sold. I think you'll find
> that the actual number is actually around 1/10 of what the average guess
> would be. Customers seem to always over-estimate the size of markets (and
> the sizes of the companies filling those markets for that matter).
Truer words were never written.
We once had a customer during the height of the Cold War, a research
atmospheric physicist at the Army Research Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences
Laboratory, who just went on and on about the size of market we've have if we
built and commercially packaged the nephelometers we were building for him.
He assured us that the market would be in the thousands, but his view was
greatly colored by the fact that he simply needed them so desperately. In
contrast, I wasn't altogether sure that the market was all that much bigger
than just him. Most people don't even know what a nephel is, and they sure as
heck don't need them measured.
Wirt Atmar
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