Gavin noted after me:
================================================

>> 25.1 + 16.3 = 41.4 percent projected plan stay on MPE.
>> 35.6 + 23.0 = 58.6 percent projected transition off MPE.
>
> Some percentage of those transitioning will be planning
> on taking until after 2006 to complete their transitions
> and therefore may be interested in OpenMPE activities of
> one sort or another.

Good point:  As a practical matter I suspect all of these
numbers are pretty "fuzzy";  i.e.:  Many sites who said
they planned to stay on MPE did not necessarily mean
forever;  and nearly half of the sites who said they are
planning to transition off MPE do not expect to even START
implementing that transition until 2004 or later.

Gavin continued:

> And I suspect a *large* percentage of "transition"
> projects will miss their deadlines, and a non-trivial
> number of projects will fail *completely*, thus
> increasing again the number of people remaining on
> MPE (whether they want to or not) into 2007 and beyond.

The single most dependable thing about large software
projects is that you can almost universally depend on them
to be late...  Carrying the survey statistics a little
further, we see that 61.1 percent expect their transition
to take two or more years.  If you throw in a very rough
general rule that large software projects many times take
at least twice as long as initially projected (heck, some
take TEN times as long as originally estimated), we can
already see the outlines of a lot of sites running MPE
well after the end of 2006...  and as Gavin said, some
non-trivial number of projects would be expected to fail
completely; and if the managers of those failing projects
realize that before they completely go under, maybe staying
on MPE will start to look a little more attractive to them
down the road;  if the choice they are facing is Homestead
or professional oblivian...


BTW while I have the chance:  As per previous been very
busy with real work for a couple weeks;  way behind on
extra-curricular email.  Been two weeks already since G.
graciously said:

> I think Ken himself constitutes perhaps 100% of the
> "serious hobbyist" market for an HP3000 platform emulator
> :-)
>
> Ken, in exchange for your long service to the community,
> you'll get a free copy for your own personal use.
> Assuming we ever have something to give away that is :-)

Gavin, I noticed several other long-time usual suspects
disputed your 100 percent designation;  and I don't know
that I have any reason to deserve a free personal copy any
more than any of them (and others)...   but...:  Since I'd
like to think mama didn't raise a complete fool:  I humbly
accept your most generous offer.   :-}

Ken Sletten