From http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/iraq/articles/20060212.aspx
February 12, 2006: The annual Shia Ashura festival brings out the faithful
in large numbers, and was banned when Saddam ruled. Since then, terrorists
have attacked the Shia participants, killing 55 in 2005, and 181 in 2004.
This year, the terrorists were unable to kill anyone. Iraqi police and
soldiers supplied the security, with the help of some religious militias.
This sharp drop in terrorist activity was no fluke.
Militiamen loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al Sadr have executed
several captured al Qaeda operatives in recent weeks. While Sadr has been
a thorn in the side of the government, and the Coalition, virtually since
the onset 2003 invasion, and has several times "unleashed" his militias in
open warfare against them, he's recently been curbing his more violent
tendencies. Sadr is trying to increase his political influence. In
addition, as Shias, especially Sadr's followers, have often been the
targets of attacks by al Qaeda and by pro-Saddam Sunni Arab gangs. As a
result, Sadr has begun using his forces against these groups. Whether this
signals further reconciliation with the government remains to be seen.
Sometimes there have been confrontations between Sadr gunmen and Iraqi
police or American troops.
Citing the existence of Shia and Kurdish militias, some Sunni leaders in
Anbar province are urging the government to recognize their local
militias, which have been conducting operations against al Qaeda. This
could provide increased Sunni Arab buy-in to the government that is now
being formed. The risk, however, is that allowing these Sunni Arab armed
groups to exercise control over Sunni Arab populations, the militias will
often be stronger than local police. But the national government has
increasingly powerful armed forces available. But the growth in government
military and police power has begun to snowball. While police corruption
is most noticed, there are a growing number of efficient police
operations. More and more towns and neighborhoods are well policed and
safe. Special police operations, like the SWAT and counter-terrorist
units, are more numerous and effective. Partly as a result of that, there
is increasing public outcry, especially via the numerous media outlets,
that the government do something about the kidnapping gangs. It's an open
secret who some of these gangs are, and some of them are protected by
politicians or political parties. Some of the Sunni Arab terrorist groups
are turning to crime, including kidnapping and contract killings. That's
because terrorism is seen as a losing proposition, attacks are way down,
and more of the "terrorism" events are turning out to be criminal (as in
trying to make money) activity.
Terrorism has become difficult because there are more Iraqi soldiers in
action, and more elite Iraqi troops are pulling off operations previously
only carried out by coalition troops. These include night raids and
airmobile (moving troops via helicopter) attacks. The U.S. is providing
the helicopters, the Iraqis are providing the planning, leadership and
troops. These operations are much more devastating for the terrorists. The
Iraqi troops speak the language and can read the body language. So it's
much more difficult for terrorists to get away, or keep stuff hidden,
during these raids.
This success has made it easier, or just possible, for Sunni Arabs to join
the army and police. Tribal chiefs in Anbar province have openly urged
their young men to apply for these jobs, and thousands have done so. Al
Qaeda and Sunni Arab groups still hostile to the government, attack these
recruits at great peril. The tribes quickly go for revenge attacks when
their people are hurt, and the terrorists are in a bad situation because
of this shift in attitudes. There are fewer places where the terrorists
can maintain workshops and safe houses.
There are far fewer (about half as many as last year) Islamic militants
crossing over from Syria. Part of this is because of more army activity
along the border, and more cooperation from the Sunni Arab tribes. But
some of the decline is coming from falling morale. Potential Islamic
terrorist recruits now know that their prospects in Iraq are dim. Not only
are they likely to kill Iraqi civilians, but if they come up against
American troops, the result will usually be dead terrorists and a failed
mission. The terrorist money crossing the border is also way down, and
police have found more terrorists involved in crime (especially
kidnapping) in order to raise money for operating expenses.
American commanders admit that they are negotiating with some Sunni Arab
terrorist groups. These things are complicated, because some of the
terrorists have a lot of blood on their hands, most of it Iraqi blood.
Some of these terrorists have prices on their heads. But if you want to
get these groups to disband, you have to make deals that involve U.S. and
Iraqi lawyers. All this takes time, and while terrorist activity is down,
the groups that are still out there, are still killing people.
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