>Tom Brandt writes:
>What mechanism do you propose to accomplish this? Mail Saddam a subpoena and wait for him to voluntarily fly to the Hague and turn himself in? Send a couple of cops to Baghdad to handcuff him and bring him back?

Classic stuff!

>As you yourself acknowledge, Saddam is a heinous individual, who threw the weapons inspectors out of Iraq in 1998 in violation of UN resolutions, and only admitted them back in last fall when Bush pointed a gun at him. Were an indictment brought against him , the only thing that could bring him before the ICC would be military force.

How about this. Go with the Franco-German plan. Triple, quadruple, whatever the inspectors. Put blue-helmeted personnel within Iraq (if this is the will of the international community he would have to accept this. If he resists this stage then the consensus would be for military action). These personnel would both ensure the security and efficacy of the inspections programme whilst also providing security for aid agencies and NGO's to reach out to the Iraqi people by direct supply of pharmaceuticals, food and other aid. Literally bypass the regime. Again, any reluctance or resistance, then their would truly be a coalition to remove him by force which could begin by annexing the northern no-fly zone, which we already control, put in a UN governorship and commence to build the infrastructure of an alternative future Iraqi government.

Make it abundantly clear from the start, that any neighbouring countries that engage in black market trading with him would also be in violation of the international community and subject to asset seizure, economic and political isolation. Make it bad to do business with him, but really mean it.

The forces in the region would have to remain as, I'm sure we would agree, people like Saddam only really understand coercion when backed up by credible threat. In using force, though, dismantle his military by solely targeting 100% military sites (no dual-purpose locations, electrical generation stations, water services, etc). It would be very clear that these last-resort measures were specifically directed at Saddam and his regime and limit his ability to manipulate the actions to make it look like the people were being targeted. Although this is all long and drawn out, the aim would be to make Saddam untenable as a leader not just in our eyes (he already is). His very own cronies and elites would (hopefully) force him to capitulate and take his chances elsewhere.

I'm only making this up as I go along but I do know that coercion backed by the threat odf force and/or limited use of force does work. It got Milosevic where he is now. The people at the top of your government and our own are highly intelligent people with the best advice money can buy. In a complex world and a complex region of the world that the Middle East is, do you really think that bombing and killing are the best they can come up with?



Richard Ali
Smith & Williamson Corporate Services Limited





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