I originally thought you were joking about this.

I ignored this issue up to now because it's a non-issue, I am traveling and
have limited access to email and have lots of real work to do.  But it is
now spinning out of control.

I don't even understand why anyone would think I plagiarized something that
I could have just linked to in a few seconds, as I have done literally
thousands of times in the past.

When I composed the original mail I was able put the various bits together
because I have been doing research over the last few years and I have been
spending a lot of time at www.dol.gov (Department of Labor), www.bls.gov
(Bureau of Labor Statistics), www.census.gov (Census Bureau) and other
government agencies, all linked as favorites on my notebook.

My theory is that we are nearing or are now at full employment and that the
headlines are going to change in the next few years from unemployment
figures to unfilled jobs due to lack of manpower (still Bush's fault.)
For example, my notes show that employment is at 144.0 million and the total
civilian labor force is 151 M. You can find that at the DOL web site.  It's
right there.

Compare these figures to the population of 20-65 year olds in this country
which is 179 million, (89 M males and 90 M females.)  But 179 million is not
the total available for work (as noted above,) we need to add some for the
15-19 year old and some from the 65+ year old and subtract a large amount of
people who cannot work or chose to not be employed.  As I said earlier, the
DOL says that number is 151M.  I am trying to match the difference, factor
in the military population, and work out some trends.  As I have stated many
times before, the replacement generation is smaller that the older currently
working (but fixing to retire) generation and the 65+ block is growing.  I
am still not sure how this whole thing will turn out but I predict
interesting times ahead.

I have posted and presented about these issues several times over the years.
I gave a 90 minute presentation with graphs and data that I had extracted
from www.census.gov for the US and many other countries at GHRUG in Houston
some years back; some of you were in the audience.

I have talked about population pyramids for many years; look in the
archives.  Right now, I am applying the population trends to employment
figures and trying to draw correlations between them and trying to divine
developing trends for the future

At some point, I plan to either post or submit for publication my analysis
and my conclusions if I ever finish it.

I thank Andrew for posting the complete article from Larry Kudlow, but while
the data is the same, his conclusions are not mine, thought they are
extremely valid and I agree with them.

For example, I used the 33 month figure simply because that is when the
seasonably adjusted rate of unemployment reached its zenith (June/July 2003
time frame) at 6.3% and then started dropping after that as jobs were added.
So for the last 33 months, since August of 2003, the unemployment rate has
been steadily dropping.  I imagine Mr. Kudlow used the same figure for the
same reason; in fact it's a well used marker.  It seems 2 + 2 gives the same
answer for different writers so one of them plagiarized the other.

The next time I post about the temperature at which water freezes, I will
make sure to look it up somewhere and cite it lest someone say I plagiarized
that also.

Don't even bother apologizing, just go away, you bore me.

Denys




BTW, for a feeling of "deja lu" , here is a link:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Which I reproduce in part here:


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION:  MAY 2006

   Nonfarm employment edged up in May (+75,000), and the unemployment rate
was little changed at 4.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the
U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  Employment continued to trend up
in some service-providing industries and in mining, while retail trade and
manufacturing lost jobs.  Average hourly earnings were up by 1 cent in May
following a gain of 10 cents in April.
   
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
   
   Both the number of unemployed persons (7.0 million) and the unemployment
rate (4.6 percent) were essentially unchanged in May.  A year earlier, the
unemployment rate was 5.1 percent.
   
...

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