Thus it was written in the epistle of Wayne Brown,
> I still can't see how the odds for the second choice could be anything but
> 50/50.  Sure, Monty deliberately avoided the door with the WBDOA.  But that
> door could well be the one you've already chosen.  In fact, as I see it, the
> odds were really 50/50 even before the first choice was made.  Since we know
> in advance that Monty is going to open one of the doors, and we also know
> that he will always choose a goat, then there was never really a choice of
> three doors.  In effect, the first choice doesn't count, because whatever
> choice is made will eliminate one of the goats.  So effectively, the real
> choice is always going to be between the other two doors, one of which hides
> the WBDOA, and there'll be a 1 in 2 chance of choosing it.

Wayne,
  You'd be right, but only if Monty would tell you *before you made your
choice* which door he was going to open.  Then there would be a 1 in 2 chance
that you picked the right door the first time.

Ted
--
Ted Ashton ([log in to unmask]), Info Sys, Southern Adventist University
          ==========================================================
Statistics are the triumph of the quantitative method, and the quantitative
method is the victory of sterility and death.
                                      -- Belloc, Hillaire (1870-1953)