Some weeks back, I posted a message about an article in a magazine.
Since that time, I have done quite extensive research on the subject,
culminating in a presentation at GHRUG last week.  The paradigm is
shifting with respect to jobs.  The economy has recovered and is now
growing rapidly.  The population is aging and the baby boomer generation
is starting to retire.  The generation that follows is smaller.  This
phenomenon is the same around the world with some countries having the
effect more pronounced than in the US and in other countries, the effect
is smaller or rather, somewhat delayed but inevitable.  I detailed about
10 different countries at GHRUG.  The population pyramids were quite
revealing.

Providing nothing major occurs, the economy is on track to grow and
unemployment as a concept will disappear in a couple of years as we
enter a protracted period of too few workers.  This effect will be most
felt in the tech sector (mainly IT), where over 5 million jobs will go
unfilled by 2010 in the US alone.  The situation will only get worse as
time goes on.  If you add in unskilled jobs, the number exceeds 7
million jobs by 2010.  (By 2020, the total will be over 21 million jobs
unfilled, again in the US alone.)  For the world as a whole the numbers
are staggering.  I foresee a long period of heavy competition with
companies and countries trying to get and retain workers.

In my talk I said we would first see the effects of this shift as more
jobs are created and boomers retire by 2005.  I think I was being too
conservative.  I am beginning to believe it has already started.  The
unemployment rate will continue to go down from here and will virtually
disappear inside of 24-36 months.

Of course, there are plenty of anecdotal "evidence" that would disprove
these facts, but even as workers were transitioning to automobile
production, unemployment rose in the buggy and whip industry.

In the same vein, if your skills are totally oriented towards the
HP3000, you may have problems finding employment in the future, but let
me suggest to you that a modicum of retraining, applying your skills to
Linux, Windows, HP-UX or whatever, will pay handsomely in the near
future.  Further, any type of accreditation in IT will be amply rewarded
in short order.  If you have children or in some cases grandchildren,
orient them towards IT, they will thank you for it soon enough.

By the way, this has nothing to do with government policies, whether
Republican or Democrat.  As most people realize by now, governments have
little influence on the economy and job creation.  The government does
NOT create jobs, the economy does.  The government can slow down
economic growth and extinguish jobs by imposing heavy taxation and
onerous regulations, witness California and Europe.  Conversely the
government can spur the economy and job creation by lowering taxes and
eliminating regulations.  This simple concept eludes the socialists and
the utopians; thankfully in this country, they are in the minority.  (If
you think the government has total control over the economy, please
explain to me why a government in power would want to throw the economy
into a recession or a depression.)

(Of course, national security, the number one job of government, is
crucial to the economy.  If we withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan before
democracy is firmly established there, the terrorists will come back
here and strike at this country directly.  Right now, they are fighting
for their very existence many thousands of miles away as we take the
battle to the very core of their domains.  So far, they have been too
busy trying to survive to attack us again.  If a Rat is elected next
year, things will radically change and once again our national security
will be in jeopardy along with the economy.  Do not forget that the
Naïve Nine all promise to raise taxes and withdraw from Iraq immediately
upon being sworn in.  The only two differences between them is one, some
may bring the troops back while others would simply abandon them
overseas and two, how much they would raise taxes.)

The Bush tax cuts were right on target and are now having the desired
effect on the economy.  The jobs are starting to appear and this will
flow into the upcoming paradigm shift where this will be so for decades
to come.

It is inevitable.

Denys

-----Original Message-----
From: HP-3000 Systems Discussion [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On
Behalf Of Shahan, Ray
Sent: Tuesday, November 11, 2003 12:32 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: [HP3000-L] 2.7 million new jobs?

This link (from USA Today) shows we'll gain 2.7 millions jobs next year.
I've heard of al these new jobs created over the last couple of months,
but
I still see/hear lot's of folks unemployed in the U.S..

Does the government count overseas jobs in the overall count of jobs for
the
U.S.?


http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2003-11-10-jobs_x.htm


Ray Shahan

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