I can just see this now...
<start time warp to next party>
Some girl: So have you heard the new Michelle Branch single?
Me: Say, speaking of water rights, did you know that El Nino is governed by
the Dewy Decimal System? I learned this from Wirt Atmar!
Some girl: No, but isn't that the system for cataloging books at the
library?
Me: Yea, go figure! I think we should fire all the librarians so our weather
improves.
</end time warp to next party>
I guess I stick to topics I know. :)
Paul Scott
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-----Original Message-----
From: HP-3000 Systems Discussion [mailto:[log in to unmask]]On
Behalf Of Wirt Atmar
Sent: Monday, June 24, 2002 9:40 AM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [HP3000-L] OT , WOT
Jim writes:
> You are correct. Water from the Colorado is earmarked for CA, causing
> problems in other areas. I understand NM also has problems because of
this.
What's occurring is that we're entering a 25- to 30-year period of drought.
Western North America's weather is governed principally by the short-term
ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle imposed on the PDO (Pacific
Decadal
Oscillation), which is of course something you can tell your friends at the
next party you attend :-).
The graph in the middle of this page shows the cycle in detail:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/Flagstaff/science/pdo.htm
If you can perform fourier transforms in your head, you can get a sense that
sea surface temperatures are governed by the imposition of two primary
sinusoids on top of one other, the ENSO and the PDO.
Because we're entering, and have been for a few years now, in the negative
phase of the PDO, total precipitation, but most especially winter snowfall,
will likely be less than it has been for the last 30 years. For the next few
years, it's going to mean very large forest fires. But on the longer term,
it's very likely going to mean significant water shortfalls for the Colorado
and Rio Grande river basins and all of the people that they serve.
Wirt Atmar
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