At 06:55 PM 2/3/2005, Wirt Atmar wrote:
>Denys writes:
>
> > This subject is something that I have been talking about for a while now.
> > What makes it interesting is that it is 180 degrees from what many
> consider
> > to be conventional wisdom, to wit, the population is increasing and there
> > will be no room on the planet in a few years.
>
>And in this era of a kinder, gentler HP3000-L, let me say that your analysis
>and conclusions are simplistic, boorish and wrong.
>
>I believe that everyone already knows that the populations of the
>industrialized countries are growing older and that their populations are
>in decline.
>It's been discussed on this list numerous times before. But that doesn't mean
>that the population of the planet Earth isn't increasing, and alarmingly so.
>Moreover, it certainly doesn't mean that "resource footprint" of the rest
>of the
>world isn't increasing even more dramatically than its numbers and that there
>aren't going to be significant shortages of some of the world's supplies
>in the
>next several decades, most especially petroleum.
>
>The world's population at the time of the Caesars is estimated to be 100 to
>200 million people
that's really an amazing assumption. How did *they* arrive at this
figure? I'm always curious how things like this are arrived at when there
is absolutely no way to have an accurate number. Maybe there was a billion
people in south america and they were wiped out without anyone ever knowing
they were there (just an example). there's that huge desert in the center
of Australia, what if that was a lush grassland with a population of 100
million and through some catastrophe it became desertified (new word) and
everyone died? as far as I know "The Great Sandy Desert" is not well
explored. There are corners all over the globe that could have been filled
with people that we have no record of.
>(that is, less than half the population of the United States
>spread all over the planet). Although the planet is now headed towards a
>global population of 8000 to 13000 million people (scenarios vary) before it
>peaks, the Earth could easily function with a population of one or two hundred
>million again. Indeed, if we're ever to make a utopia of this world, where
>every
>child has full opportunity for a well-educated life of intellectual
>liberty and
>material wealth, it will only occur as a self-sustaining economy at a
>population similar to that of the Caesers.
This is a stunning conclusion. Why would a sparse population lead to
better education and material wealth? I would think it would lead to
less. You would have two basic scenarios, one where people still grouped
in to cities so there would be a "market" and a society to create, staff
and build an education system. Or you would have people so spread out that
you would hardly ever see anyone, so how would you get educated? How would
you accumulate material wealth? On your farm? I don't see how you arrive
at your conclusion, it doesn't make any sense.
I seem to recall reading that you could fit every person alive today in to
the state of Texas and give them about 1,200 square feet. If true, then
the earth is hardly over crowded, we're just doing what I stipulated in my
prior paragraph, grouping in to cities where education and jobs are
available. i could buy an island tomorrow and move to it (I found a nice
one for under $50,000) and my family would be the only ones there, now how
would that lead to the development of intellect and accumulation of
wealth? Of course it would be a utopia because I would be running it :),
I've decided we'll call our island nation Simprini and our money will be
made out of big paper circles because a circle is like a happy face.
>Wirt Atmar
>
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Regards,
Shawn Gordon
President
theKompany.com
www.thekompany.com
www.mindawn.com
949-713-3276
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