Wirt Atmar wrote in message ...
>There is another one of these articles on the web that essentially predicts
>the end of the PC -- at least as a standalone processor.

<rest snipped>

Sorry...I wrote a short response to this, then cancelled it. I love
speculating on trends so this is a little long. Ignore at will.

I think the PC will change substantially, but it's extremely premature, IMO
to predict its demise. You could just as easily predict the demise of UNIX
or Cobol (been there, as I recall <s>), since all things eventually come to
an end. The question is how LONG before we put little x's over the PC's
proverbial eyeballs.

The PC must remain capable of being a standalone processor for as long as
the communications issues from host to client remain so poor. Modems are
still much too slow for much of the commercial web content currently being
published, and we are unlikely to see streamlining of code so that modem
users can see content faster. As it is, commercial web sites have to hold
back on functionality to accommodate the lowly modem user. Regardless of the
wonders of T1 lines, 60% of web surfers are getting there via modem
connection. Home users outnumber corporate users, and always will. Until it
is standard for home users to have fast, effective, reliable connection to
the internet, we will not see the death of the PC. IMO, anyway.

From a corporate perspective, there are two things that need to happen to
PCs, I think. I think they need to become easier to use. Yep, really. I
would like to see a Beginner - Intermediate - Advanced user option in
Windows, such that the interface and reliability level changes depending
upon which level you say you are. Beginners jump out of their skin and make
panicked phone calls to IS when they are presented with an error message
that isn't clearly written. Worse, their confidence level sinks to 'I can't
possibly do this'. This means more work for IS. On the other side, it's
extremely annoying for a power user to have to get rid of Clip the Office
nag so that they can get on with work. Advanced users should be able to turn
off all of the happy touchy feely stuff in one place.

Second, I think that Windows needs to become even more capable of central
administration. It can already do some pretty cool things via remote admin,
but it's not very reliable, and it takes a fair amount of work to set up.
Not very practical for smaller shops where the capability for central
administration is still needed, but where resources to administer it are
diminished compared to large corporate sites.

And on the 'too much power' theory...when voice recognition becomes more
reliable, those PC's will need every bit of power they can get. Again, this
is not from a work environment perspective...it's from a base user level.
Talk to people who can't type. They are DYING for this technology. We're in
a lull now (in need for more power -- insert Tim Allen grunt here), but I
don't expect it to last. Virtual reality is a fun idea, but voice
recognition is something that will help all computer users.

Yep, the PC is a goner. Someday. But not any day soon, IMO.

Jennifer