> From: Norm Matloff <[log in to unmask]>
> >
> > The enclosed press release, from a major industry lobbyist which pushed
> > Congress for increasing the H-1B quota, states that 96,700 new jobs in
> > IT were created in 2001.  According to the INS, as of February 2000
> > about 53% of H-1Bs are in IT, and there were 163,000 H-1B visas issued
> > in 2001.
> >
> > Putting these statistics together, that would say that 90% of new IT
> > jobs in 2001 went to H-1Bs!

Could you explain what this statistic is supposed to mean?  I don't think
you can tell anything from it.  You are dividing the number of H-1B visas by
the number of _net_ new IT jobs.  You could get 90% or 190% or 290% and it
still doesn't tell you whether the number of IT jobs held by H-1B visa
holders is increasing, decreasing, or staying the same.

Even assuming lower-than-normal turnover rates because of the recession,
there must have been at least 250,000 computer-related hires last year.
Dividing by that would make some sense, but it still doesn't tell you
whether the number of IT jobs held by H-1B visa holders is increasing,
decreasing, or staying the same.  To know that, you would also have to know
how many H-1B visa-holders lost IT-related jobs last year.  You assert,
mysteriously, that these unknowns "should largely cancel each other out".
Why?

> Now compare this to the Dept. of Commerce finding that during 1996-1998,
> 28% of new IT jobs needing a Bachelor's degree were filled by H-1Bs.
>
> In other words, even though this is a very rough analysis, the data seem
> to strongly suggest that THE PERCENTAGE OF NEW IT JOBS BEING FILLED BY
> H-1BS HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS -- A
> PERIOD OF SHARP DOWNTURN IN THE IT JOB MARKET.

Huh?  What relation are you claiming between the two statistics?  It doesn't
sound like they are even remotely comparable.

Ken Hirsch

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