Ken Sletten writes:

>Linux server sales surging
>
>... , in the server market, where Linux competes with Windows
>NT, Linux sales surged 212 percent last year versus a 27.2
>percent gain for Windows NT, according to research firm
>International Data Corp. The jump gave Linux roughly 17
>percent of the market last year, versus almost 36 percent for
>Microsoft's NT.
>==================================
>
>If correct, the above strike me as some fairly astounding
>numbers.  I know Linux was gaining market share, but have
>to confess I had no idea it was closing on 50 percent of the
>NT server installed base.
>
>Does anyone substantially disagree with the above estimates;
>"violently" (Denys ??....     ;-)  ) or otherwise ??.....

I think you have to be careful in interpreting these numbers; it's not at
all clear that every one of those new Linux boxes filled a slot that
would otherwise have been occupied by an NT box. People buy Linux for
routing and firewall duty, and Linux boxes have lowered the price point
for Internet servers so that they're extending the bottom end of the
market, where NT doesn't want to be anyway. The danger for MS, of course,
is that the people currently inhabiting the bottom end of the market
won't be upgrading to NT, but will stick with Linux as their business
grows. This could rob NT of significant unit market share growth in the
coming years, though if they're successful at attacking the high-end
enterprise market they could still see substantial market-share growth in
revenue terms.

One nice thing about all this is that Intel has discovered that they
don't need to be dependent on Microsoft. This means that the
next-generation I/O structure, designed by an exclusive club from which
Linux developers were systematically excluded, will now be fully open.
(Originally, you had to pay to get into the club, and sign a
nondisclosure agreement. Since nondisclosure meant that source code
developed by club members couldn't be freely distributed, Linux
developers, who develop under the GNU Public License, were effectively
shut out -- even if someone ponied up the club dues.)

-- Bruce


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