This subject is something that I have been talking about for a while now.
What makes it interesting is that it is 180 degrees from what many consider
to be conventional wisdom, to wit, the population is increasing and there
will be no room on the planet in a few years.

My point in this discussion is not to preach to anyone or to long for olden
or better times.  I am merely stating a fact.  I should think that if one
were worried about one's career because of "over-population", one would take
heart in the fact that there will be plenty of work for the next several
decades.

Trying to argue against demographics is a waste of time.  In five years
time, everyone will be five years older or dead.  It's that simple.  People
that are 60 today will be retiring; actually many people that are in the 50s
now are already thinking of retiring.

As for computers doing everything, that's true as far as it goes, but
remember that a company like Intel, which is highly automated has a expanded
its workforce tremendously since it started.  :-) Technology demands a large
skilled workforce.

One of the main areas where workers will be lacking is in IT.  I am talking
about solid people that have been in the business for a long time, not
people who just learned HTML coding last month.

I'm just trying to bring some optimism WRT the future while cautioning
people about some of the challenges ahead.

Denys

-----Original Message-----
From: HP-3000 Systems Discussion [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf
Of Russ Smith
Sent: Thursday, February 03, 2005 5:53 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: [HP3000-L] OT: Population trends.

Our hpux migration is less than six weeks away, but since I am now forcing
myself to take lunch breaks and reading 3000L is about as random a diversion
as one might get....

I should ask: what exactly is so bad about the number of people in the world
decreasing?

I scanned the article you linked to, noting the implication that keeping
women in the home, having and raising six kids (three boys to go out and
work eleven hours a day in the factories, and three girls to stay home and
help mother cook and clean for the men folk), was about as idyllic a
situation as one could imagine.

Beyond the implied reverence for a time that is rightly, long gone; where is
the reason the author is so up in arms?  Is it the shrinking work force in
an environment where thanks to machines, computers, and process improvements
driving productivity higher each year so that three people today can do the
work of fifty from this time last century?  That can't be it, because that
fact would suggest that a slow in birth rate might not be a bad thing.

Maybe we should ask some of the tens of thousands of people needing six
months or a year, to find another job, all the while eating away at what
little they have been able to save (and normally taking a huge tax penalty
for it), whether they think another few million people in the workforce is a
necessity.

Of course, just because the birth rates of various industrialized nations
change and trend observably downward, doesn't *really* mean anything anyway.
After all, just think about all those envirokooks who keep claiming that the
poles are melting, using their fancy "photograph" images to supposedly prove
it.  And we all know what a bunch of krapp that idea is, so maybe this
population thing is too.

Or even if it is true, maybe we should stop thinking that providing the
factory owners with an inexhaustible supply of under educated, under
represented, and politically impotent workers isn't the necessity some would
have us believe.

In sum, why does fewer people not just mean the lines won't be as long at
the grocery store?  And, thanks for something to think about other than
shell scripting.

Rs~

Russ Smith
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