Greg asks:

> What kind of government does the Iraqi constititution define? What kind of 
>  democracy? Do they have a balance of powers? Branches? A bicameral 
>  legislative body? Parliament? Is it determined by majority vote, or an 
>  electoral college, or representative rule? Is there a chief executive? If 
>  so, what is his title? In fact, who did they elect to their chief office 
>  anyway? Who can vote? Can women vote? At what age can someone vote? Who 
>  cannot? Non-nationals? Can criminals vote? Those whose crime was 
dissidence? 
>  Who is a non-national or a criminal in a post-Saddam Iraq?

Thomas Friedman of the NY Times asks very much the same questions in today's 
issue of the paper. The basic answer is that no one knows, not even the 
Iraqis, and certainly not the Americans. I've included the most relevant parts of 
his opinion piece here:

========================================

December 21, 2005
Op-Ed Columnist

The Measure of Success 
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN

It is terrific that Iraqis just had another free and fair election and that 
some 11 million people voted. Americans should be proud that we helped to bring 
that about in a region that has so rarely experienced any sort of democratic 
politics.

But what's still unclear is this: Who and what were Iraqis voting for? Were 
they voting for Kurdish sectarian leaders, who they hope will gradually split 
Kurdistan off from Iraq? Were they voting for pro-Iranian Shiite clerics, who 
they hope will carve out a Shiite theocratic zone between Basra and Baghdad? 
Were they voting for Sunni tribal leaders, who they hope will restore the Sunnis 
to their "rightful" place - ruling everyone else? Or, were they voting for a 
unified Iraq and for politicians whom they expect to compromise and rewrite 
the Constitution into a broadly accepted national compact?

If they were voting for Iraqi sects, then it means that there are no Iraqi 
citizens - only Shiites, Kurds, Sunnis etc., trapped together inside Iraq's 
artificial borders. If, however, they were voting for a unified Iraq and Iraqi 
leaders who will make that happen, we still have a chance for a decent outcome. 

Because if there are Iraqi citizens, and national leaders, then we have 
partners for the kind of Iraq we hope to see built. In that case, we must stay the 
course. If there are no Iraqi citizens, or not enough, then we have no real 
partners and staying the course will never produce the self-sustaining Iraq we 
want.

President Bush talks about Iraq as if it were a given that there is a single 
Iraqi aspiration for exactly the kind of pluralistic democracy America would 
like to see built in Iraq, and that the only variable is whether we stay long 
enough to see it through. I wish that were so - our job would be easy. But it 
is not so. It still is not clear what is the will of the Iraqi people. In the 
wake of this election, though, we are about to find out.

Everything now rides on what kind of majority the Iraqi Shiites want to be 
and what kind of minority the Sunnis want to be. Will the Shiites prove to be 
magnanimous in victory and rewrite the Constitution in a way that decent Sunnis, 
who want to be citizens of a unified Iraq, can accept? Will the Sunnis agree 
to accept their fair share of Iraq's oil revenue and government posts - and 
nothing more?

My own visits to Iraq have left me convinced that beneath all the tribalism, 
there is a sense of Iraqi citizenship and national identity eager to come out. 
But it will take more security, and many more Iraqi leaders animated by 
national reconciliation, for it to emerge in a sustained way. 

Unlike many on the left, I'm not convinced that this will never happen and 
that all of this has been for naught. Unlike many on the right, I'm not 
convinced that it will inevitably happen if we just stay the course long enough. The 
only thing I am certain of is that in the wake of this election, Iraq will be 
what Iraqis make of it - and the next six months will tell us a lot. I remain 
guardedly hopeful.

How will you know if things are going well? Easy. The Iraqi Army will 
suddenly become effective without U.S. guidance. It will know how to fight, because 
it will know what - and whom - it is fighting for. 

========================================

Wirt Atmar

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