As we all suspected:

From Cobol Report News Blast * March 12, 2001

Gartner study* "Numbers aren't worth the magnetic domains they're stored in."

Last year Gartner Group released a study purporting to show that it was cheaper to hire new Java programmers than it was to teach Cobol programmers new skills.

Bob Lewis, in a remarkably bold departure from "the good ole boy network" where one doesn't criticize the work of another writer flatly denounced the work of Gartner analysts J. Feiman and R. Flatau-Reynoso, who wrote the study.

In fact Bob Lewis challenged Mr. Feiman to an InfoWorld peer-to-peer column should Gartner wish to submit one. Here is some of what Bob Lewis has to say.

"If you're thinking about reskilling your Cobol work force, here's what you now know: Gartner thinks it's a good idea, despite its analysis purporting to show that reskilling is the more expensive choice. My unrefuted analysis of their analysis suggests their numbers aren't worth the magnetic domains they're stored in."

"I read every page [of the Gartner study], but found nothing to change my assessment. Mr. Feiman assured me he's in favor of retraining Cobol programmers, but he provided nothing to refute any part of my critique, which pointed out that although every imaginable cost in retraining Cobol programmers had been quantified, in the costing of recruiting Java programmers, only salary and benefits had been turned into numbers.

Mr. Feiman didn't respond to my invitation to discuss the matter. InfoWorld has made an open offer to print a peer-to-peer column should Gartner choose to submit one; to date that offer is also still open but unaccepted."

"In his final message Mr. Feiman expressed distress at my disinterest in his opinion. It's a fine distinction -- I'm more interested in what he's published than what he thinks, because that's what IS managers will use when making decisions. Then there's the letter I received from Vincent Maiello, practice manager of the professional services division at Chubb Computer Services." Vincent Maiello says "We have found that major organizations find reskilling their employees to be more cost effective than hiring new employees, not only because of the cost of recruiting and ramp up time, but because of the (non-monetary) value of the employee's knowledge."

Please take a moment to email Bob Lewis and thank him for rebutting the Gartner Study. Below is the quick email I sent Mr. Lewis, feel free to use it in full or part.

I would like to thank you for refuting the questionable analysis done by Gartner Group in their "study", "The Cost of Migrating COBOL Developers to Java." Gartner's less than adequate analysis and dubious claims are disservice to the IT industry. 

http://www.itworld.com/Career/3709/IW010226oplewis/ - Bob Lewis
http://gartner5.gartnerweb.com/public/static/hotc/00092702.html * Gartner Group study http://www.infoworld.com/articles/op/xml/00/11/06/001106oplewis.xml - Bob Lewis