Dennis wrote:

>
> When the mini really took off, everyone predicted the "inevitable" demise
> of the mainframe.  Didn't happen.  When the PC's took off and networking
> became fashionable, everyone predicted the "inevitable" demise of the minis
> and those dinosaurish mainframe.  Again, didn't happen.  When the NC's
> started (but didn't take off), Larry Ellison and his cronies, predicted the
> demise of the PC.  Guess what, didn't happen.
>
> We'll talk again in 5 years.
>

Administering distributed machines is a pain.  Sys admins would love to replace
PC's with terminals, because terminals reduce software installation and
file backup maintenance.  As web software improves and network bandwith
increases, PC's will be expendable in the office.

Centralization has always been preferable to distribution as far as system
administration is concerned.  When network bandwidths are adequate, the trend
will always be towards centralization.

The great success of the minis and PC's is partly a symptom of the
past inadequacies of network bandwidths.  The internet is in the process of
fixing that.

Many people, but not all and probably not most, will still want PC's at home
for their versatility.

Jim

Jim Kramer /Lund Performance Solutions
Director of Research and Development
phone: (541) 926-3800  fax:   (541) 926-7723
email: [log in to unmask]    home:  [log in to unmask]
http://www.lund.com