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August 2002, Week 2

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From:
Jerry Leslie <[log in to unmask]>
Reply To:
Jerry Leslie <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 14 Aug 2002 18:17:04 -0500
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 asok ([log in to unmask]) wrote:
: [log in to unmask] wrote in message
: news:<[log in to unmask]>...
: > ...skip...
: > I would think that it would be damaging enough to India's economy for
: > Pakistan to "nuke" any major city in India containing such business
: > centers, regardless of India's response. Indian retaliation would
: > likely make matters...
:
: You can not assume that if a war starts between India and Pakistan
: it will be limited to those two countries.

If it such a war only uses conventional weapons, it's doubtful that any
other country would get involved.

If nuclear weapons are used, China might annex both countries.

But China, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal
and the rest of the world have a BIG problem to deal with:

   http://www.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/south/08/12/asia.haze/index.html
   CNN.com - 'Asian Brown Cloud' poses global threat - August 12, 2002

  "The lives of millions of people are at risk, both from the toxic haze
   and the weather change it brings, the study shows..."

:
: What is the reason that US is desperate to avert war between
: India & Paksitan? Surely not out of charity

Why is it impossible that charity is part of the reason ?

There also may be fear that once the nuclear genie is out of his
bottle, other countries could be tempted to use their nuclear
arsenals.

: or those back office shops in bangalore.
:

Loss of those BPO operations would cost the U.S. billions of dollars
paying off political risk insurance claims...

U.S. corporations buy political risk insurance for their overseas
operations from a small independent government agency, the Overseas
Private Investment Corporation:

   http://www.opic.gov/
   The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC)

  "The Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) is an independent
   self-sustaining U.S. Government agency that sells political risk
   insurance and project financing to encourage private investment by
   U.S. companies in some 140 emerging economies around the world."

The risks covered include nationalization and both civil and international
war:

   http://www.opic.gov/insurance/welcome.htm
   OPIC Insurance Main Page

   OPIC'S OBJECTIVE:
   To promote and facilitate U.S. investment in emerging market economies
   by helping businesses manage risk.

   Expertise

   "Interest in political risk is growing rapidly, driven by investors'
   reluctance to invest in emerging market debt in the aftermath of the
   financial crisis in Asia, Russia and Latin America. Although the
   crises were not caused by any sovereign exchange controls, investors
   are nevertheless seeking additional coverage for sovereign risk."

                                                      - Standard & Poor's

   Risk (risk), n. 1. Exposure to the chance of injury or loss; a hazard
   or dangerous chance. Risk in today's increasingly global marketplace
   can take many different forms. Risk is a very real factor in business
   and investor decision making, and managing that risk is paramount to
   the ultimate success or failure of any international activity. Whether
   it is the expropriation or nationalization of your assets or losses
   that result from politically motivated violence such as civil or
   international wars, these risks affect businesses across the globe
   every day. OPIC Political Risk Insurance provides the security and
   peace of mind necessary to pursue opportunities in emerging markets,
   places where the rules of the game can change drastically and
   suddenly.

Enron is one of the largest customers of the OPIC, mostly for
the $2.9 billion Dabhol power project....

   EnronGate: News Archives: Enron project was raised with India --
   White House says Cheney's lobbying justified
   http://www.enrongate.com/news/index.asp?id=118898

   Enron project was raised with India -- White House says Cheney's
   lobbying justified
   By BENNETT ROTH - Houston Chronicle
   January 19, 2002

  "WASHINGTON -- Vice President Dick Cheney lobbied the Indian government
   last June to make good on a commitment to a power plant partly owned
   by Enron Corp., a move that White House officials said Friday was to
   protect the U.S. government's investment in the project.

   The June 27 meeting with Sonia Gandhi, the president of India's
   opposition Congress Party, took place just three days after Cheney saw
   Enron Chairman Ken Lay at an energy forum at the American Institute
   World Forum in Beaver Creek, Colo.

   Bush spokesman Ari Fleischer on Friday justified the intervention,
   arguing that Cheney was trying to protect the government's financial
   stake in the $2.9 billion Dabhol power project.

   The plant received $160 million in loan guarantees and $200 million in
   risk insurance from the Overseas Private Investment Corp., a federal
   agency that encourages corporate investment abroad.

   "There's a taxpayer exposure as a result of the work that's being done
   through the Overseas Private Investment Corporation," said Fleischer.

   [snip]

   While the Dabhol plant is one of the largest projects financed by
   OPIC, the agency is involved in $17 billion to $18 billion worth of
   projects in more than 100 countries, Spinelli said. Enron is among the
   largest benefactors of OPIC funding."


--Jerry Leslie   (my opinions are strictly my own)
  Note: [log in to unmask] is invalid for email

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