I could not resist.  The way I see it is like this.  Given 3 doors, I have one
chance in 3 to be correct.  The other 2 doors, together, have 2 chances in 3 of
being correct.  With me so far?  Now, I am shown that one of the 2 doors is not
the good one.  The chances of the remaining door being correct are still 2 out
of three.  The odds have not changed.  I am still facing 1 door that I picked
or 2 doors unpicked, it is irrelevant that one of the doors has been opened,
unless of course, I picked the opened (empty) door.  The odds are still 1:3 for
my original door and 2:3 for the unselected, unopened door.

Now with the ticket, if I choose 1 ticket out of 1 million tickets and then all
the other tickets are shown as losers except for 1 which is still unknown and
my original ticket, will I switch?  In a heartbeat.  My original ticket had and
still has 1 chance in a million, the other ticket(s) has 999,999 out of a
million of being correct.  The other ticket represents all the other tickets
except mine.

Kind regards,

Denys. . .

Denys Beauchemin
HICOMP
(800) 323-8863  (281) 288-7438         Fax: (281) 355-6879
denys at hicomp.com                             www.hicomp.com


-----Original Message-----
From:   Tony Peters [SMTP:[log in to unmask]]
Sent:   Thursday, March 02, 2000 1:05 PM
To:     [log in to unmask]
Subject:        Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors

Absolutely correct.  You are faced with a decision between 2 items.  1 is
correct. That works out to a 50-50 chance.  Your original chances would have
been 1 in billion, but now, by removing the others, it changes the odds, and
it is really a new game.  You are now choosing between 2 doors, 1 of which
you know is the winner. The odds are still 1 out of 2 whether you chose the
one you chose in the old game, or the new one presented to you.  It may seem
different, but it is not. Lottery games run on the assumption that there may
be NONE of the tickets with the winning number.  Monty's did not.

Tony

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Genesis Total Solutions [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Thursday, March 02, 2000 1:06 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: OT: Probability question - 3 doors
>
>
> Taking this out to the nth degree...
>
> If you bought a lottery ticket (1 out of a billion tickets),
> and someone got
> rid of all the other lottery tickets except for one, and told
> you that yours
> or the other ticket is the winning one, are you saying that
> you wouldn't
> switch, that your odds are not any better now than before???
>
> Chris Miller
> Genesis
>