I wrote this observation a couple of days after the merger vote on March 19:

>Wall Street is NOT buying the HP victory announcement yet.

>Current price of HWP: $18.52
>Current price of CPQ: $10.98

>Compaq should theoretically be priced at $11.71 per share (.6325 x HWP
>shares) or 73 cents more per share.  This would be the case if
>the "victory" claimed by HP were believed to be accurate.  This indicates
>substantial doubt about the outcome of the final vote count.

Things have only deteriorated from there:

HWP: $17.37
CPQ: $9.82

Compaq should be at $10.99, or $1.17 higher than it is.  Wall Street doubt
about the outcome of the vote/lawsuit seems to be growing.  If you thought
that the merger was a sure thing you would buy shares of Compaq and profit
$1.17 each (11.9%) upon the exchange for HP shares.  If HP thinks that the
merger is a certainty they should buy as many Compaq shares as possible at
$9.82 and only pay the equivalent of .565 HP shares for each Compaq share,
instead of paying the deal price of .6325 per share.

Of course, if you think there is a fair chance of the merger/purchase not
going through you would not touch Compaq with a 10-foot pole.

Then again, if you think the merger is going to take place HP shares might
not be worth much either.

Food for thought.  Take your choice.

[No investment advice is hereby given, guaranteed or intended.]

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