Gavin muses:

> But perhaps there is come complex and *almost* impossible sequence of
>  interactions between virtual particles that results in an apparently "real"
>  particle escaping indefinitely.  If so, then all you have to do is wait a
>  while for enough of these improbable creation events to occur at the same
>  place and time to equal the mass of the Universe.
>
>  The great thing about low-probability Universe creation events like this is
>  that even though they might be so improbable that your mind might explode
>  trying to comprehend how big a duration of time we're talking about

Low-probability universes are generally not as low-probability as most people
assume. The same general consideration occurs in evolutionary genetics: how
long do I have to wait for some really spectacular genetical combination to
occur?  In each instance, either population genetics or cosmology, so long as
there exists some form of "barb of selection" that makes the first physical
occurrence of an extremely unlikely event enormously more likely to survive
into reality than the alternatives, it's appearance becomes essentially
inevitable.

The binomial theorem explains all. What's the probability of a really
beneficial event occurring if it has a one in two chance of naturally
occurring and you take two shots at it? The easiest way to calculate that
question is by asking what's the probability of it NOT occurring. The
binomial theorem can be written in condensed form as only its coefficients:

(a^2 + 2ab + b^b) : 1 2 1

In this case, it's the far right "1" that is of interest, the chance that
event didn't occur. And in this case, it's (1/2)^2, or 1/4th, or a 3/4
probability that the event did occur at least once.

Similarly, what's the probability that a one in three chance occurs if you
(or God) take three shots at it.

1 3 3 1

Again, the probability becomes 1 - (1/3)^3, or 8/9ths.

And what then is the probability if the chance of the truly cool event
occurring is only 1 in a billion, but you get to take one billion shots at it
(which is not a large number of shots in either population genetics or
cosmology)? Again, the probability of it occurring at least one time in those
billion shots is 1 - (1/1 billion)^1 billion, or .999999999.... out to 1
billion decimal places, which is guaranteed certainty, or at least certainty
close enough for government work.

So long as you have a "barb of selection" (or a reified Maxwellian Daemon) in
operation, observing and testing every trial, exceedingly improbable events
become essentially inevitable given enough trials.

Wirt Atmar

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