Shahan, Ray ([log in to unmask]) wrote:
: I'd like to sit next to Mr. Matloff while he explains to an unemployed
: U.S. tech worker why the tech job overseas is not really an issue to the
: unemployed worker here.
:
In his "age discrimination/H-1B e-newsletter", Dr. Matloff states that
the majority of the IT work going overseas is mainly call center support
and transaction processing.

He states that only a small part of software development is being
relocated overseas, and expects that trend to hold.

His view is NOT reflected by comments in the comp.software-eng and
comp.software.testing, and other forums.

It's hard to tell, since there's no government agency mandated to
monitor offshore job relocations and their impact on tax reveues.

The BLS stopped publishing IT jobless data after January, 2002, claiming
they didn't want to release data that they weren't sure was adequate.

The low cost of IT services in Asia is mentioned as a downward pressure
on the price of services here:

   http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021023/economy_usa_morganstanley_2.html
   Morgan Stanley: Deflation Risk High

  "Reuters

   Morgan Stanley: Deflation Risk High
   Wednesday October 23, 6:40 am ET

  "SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The risk of deflation in the United States is
   high and rising, Morgan Stanley's chief economist Stephen Roach said
   on Wednesday.

   The goods sector in the U.S. is already in a deflationary cycle, and
   the prices of services will fall as the sector becomes more
   globalized, U.S.-based Roach told a seminar in Singapore.

   "As globalization spreads from goods to services, there is a case for
   the low inflation U.S. economy being hit with a post-bubble
   recession," he said.

   "The case for U.S. deflation is high and rising."

   Roach said the United States was extremely open to global competition,
   and a large proportion of its imported goods came from Asia, which is
   experiencing deflation.

   Global deregulation, surging cross-border mergers and acquisitions,
   and the low cost of IT services in Asia could add to pressures on the
   prices of services. And with U.S. inflation already at a 48-year low,
   the risks were higher, he said.

   "The cushion we get from services is getting thinner and thinner, and
   in the context of the most intense deflationary cycle we have seen in
   tradeable goods. This is why I worry about deflation."

   On the risks of a double-dip recession in the United States, Roach
   said: "We came very close last spring with one percent growth, we will
   probably come closer this (third) quarter...."

Stephen Roach predicted the recession back in early 2001...

   http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/siliconvalley/3296285.htm
   Reuters Wire | 05/19/2002 | Doomsayers Ring Alarm Bells on Recovery

  "NEW YORK - (Reuters) - As the giant U.S. economy zooms out of its
   first recession in a decade, some doomsayers keep sounding alarm bells
   that the rebound is poised to sour into a deeper funk -- a so-called
   "double-dip" recession.

   The grim scenario goes something like this: consumer spending
   stumbles, unemployment shoots higher, stocks head for another
   nosedive, dormant inflation turns into suffocating deflation. And the
   Federal Reserve, having already slashed short-term rates to 40-year
   lows of 1.75 percent to spur growth, will have little room left to cut
   rates any more.

   "The odds of a double-dip in the U.S. economy are not nearly as low as
   you have been led to believe," warned Stephen Roach, chief economist
   at Morgan Stanley.

   He was a lone voice in predicting recession in early 2001 and for
   months, has argued persistently that a return to recession is on the
   way..."


--Jerry Leslie   (my opinions are strictly my own)
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