Denys writes:

>  The people who are saying the era of the PC is over are folks like Lou
>  Gestner, Scott McMealy and Larry Ellison.  All neutral observers who have
>  no vested interest in the demise of the PC.

Actually, to me, neutral observers get MORE credence.

>  I just got the November 1998 issue of Windows NT magazine.  There is a
>  little news item I want to share with you.  According to Dataquest, NT
>  workstation sales will exceed 12 million in 1998, 24 million in 1999 and 44
>  million in 2000.

That's a heck of an argument for Linux, since I daresay these
millions of PCs likely *replace* existing machines.


Wirt follows with:

> I have believed for some time, that where we're going as a group, is to an
> absolutely standard PC operating system. It wouldn't matter whose OS it is,
> but the economic advantages of such a uniformity at the PC desktop are so
> great to everyone involved, vendor or purchaser, that the result itself is
> evolutionarily inevitable.

Just as a single motor vehicle is not suitable for every task,
I believe a single OS -- even a single "PC" OS -- is also not suitable
for every task, or for every user of said task.

Why are we not all still using DOS ?

> I've also believed for some time that the piece of hardware we're aiming
> at is a 600MHz, $600 PC. But I have been surprised in this regard. We're
> getting there faster than I originally imagined. Indeed, we're almost
> there.

I confess it's still a surprise to me.

It seemed that decent PCs were *always* near that $2500 range.  At least,
that was true of my purchases over 10 years.  Sure, the power was always
a great advance over the previous purchase, but the price was always in
that general area.

It has only been within the past couple years that I have seen serious
inroads against this price point.

> Secondly, with the rise of the internet, ordinary people's perception of
> the PC has (or is beginning to) change dramatically. You now longer look
> for the information you seek on your own PC's disks. Planned or not, the
> PC is being substantially psychologically diminished in the minds of most
> people. It is now a gateway to information, not the source itself. Of all
> the reasons that I list here, this one may be the most important.

While I agree with the spirit of this, I am not entirely convinced.
Once people see information change -- or outright disappear -- I suspect
they may distrust this tool.

How many times have you had a bookmarked page just vanish?
Or seen the content of a page change from what it was?
This begins to look like Orwell's vision coming true.

> A great portion of the reason for such speed of development was the ease
> of terminal and printer I/O. The significant portion of the programming
> effort was spent on getting the right answer, as efficiently as possible,
> and not on the display.

Bingo.

--Glenn

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