Probably not.  The acquisition of Spain would not necessarily
guarantee the taking of Gibraltar.  Although the Germans had
considered it, and made a plan.  It likely would have held
out like the Germans did at Brest did in Britanny, maybe even
longer, since Gibraltar is a rock with few civilians.

----------------------

The issue I see here is that the Allies had no pressing need to
take Brest, so could just isolate it, whereas Gibralter had some
strategic importance, and at that stage the UK was unprepared and
worried about an invasion of the homeland.

----------------------

The key to British success was supply through Iraq via
Palestine.  There was a very minor threat from some German
aircraft deployed to Vichy Syria, and Iraq had to be taken too.
When these threats were met, it also secured the overland
supply line to the Persian Gulf and hence to India.  About
8 millon tons of supplies were delivered via Persian Gulf
ports from 1941-1945, (90% going to the USSR however,)
enough to supply 60 divisions.

---------------------

Loss of easy access to the Med would have given the Royal Navy
problems controlling that area, and made things easier for the
Germans to equip and supply the Afrika Corp.  It would certianly
not have been smooth sailing for the Axis, but would have been
better.

---------------------

True, DAK "may" have had an easier supply line.  But it still
would have had to trace the air-harassed overland route at
least from Tobruk before the Battle of Alam Halfa where Rommel
was stopped anyway.

Also the occupation of Gibraltar would not have prevented the
invasion of Morocco by the 1st U.S. Armored Corps in any case,
nor the sinking of the Vichy French flotilla there by the Brits.

BT

------------------

Gibralter in German hands may have provided safe harbor for the French
Flotilla.  As far as the US invasion of Morocco, that depends upon
what kind of Axis forces were prepared to oppose it from Spanish Morocco.

Of course Hitler was focused on 'living space' in Russia, and might have
thought of Spain as a backwater not worthy of occupation in force.

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